IMPACT OF THE CRISIS
More than five years after the start of the conflict, intense hostilities persist across many parts of Syria. Parties to the conflict continue to commit violations of international humanitarian and international human rights law. Economic collapse continues to drive the immense humanitarian crisis across the country
Unrelenting hostilities/violence
Conflict remains the principal cause of Syria’s humanitarian crisis. All areas of the country, north, south, east and west, are impacted by the continuing conflict, which has grown more violent over the last year, resulting in thousands of deaths and injuries, increased internal displacement, large-scale migration to Europe and beyond, lost livelihoods, mounting humanitarian needs and diminished humanitarian access to many areas. Two separate cessation of hostilities agreements, brokered by the Russian Federation and the United States, provided a temporary platform for the de-escalation of hostilities and brought about a notable reduction in violence in many parts of the country. However the eventual collapse of both agreements saw a resumption of violence, with devastating impacts on civilian populations.
Violations of international humanitarian law and international human rights law
A defining feature of the conflict and humanitarian crisis in Syria has been the repeated breach of International Humanitarian Law (IHL), designed to limit the effects of armed conflict on civilians. Over the course of 2016, parties to the conflict have continued to attack densely populated areas, sometimes indiscriminately or otherwise unlawfully, targeting civilians or civilian infrastructure, such as medical facilities.
From January to September 2016, there were 101 reported attacks resulting in damage to hospitals and health care centres across Syria. In the first half of 2016, the UN verified 38 attacks on education facilities and personnel. Attacks, many of which are in breach of IHL laws and customs, result in the death of humanitarian aid workers and the destruction of infrastructure. At least 66 humanitarian workers were killed and 114 wounded in the first nine months of 2016. Obstructions are placed on the ability of humanitarian actors to access people in need, resulting in unnecessary deaths.
Above and beyond the suffering arising from hostilities, civilians’ suffering is compounded by less visible human rights violations. Parties to the conflict continue to subject civilians to campaigns of harassment, arbitrary arrest, abduction, detention, torture and ill treatment. Since the beginning of the conflict, tens of thousands of Syrians are thought to have been subject to enforced disappearance. Survivors describe horrendous ordeals of torture and abuse, while relatives of victims face protracted suffering in their efforts to uncover where they are, how they are being treated and even whether they are still alive. In ISIL-held areas, civilians continue to be subjected to executions and other inhumane punishments for alleged violations of strict codes imposed by the group. Women and girls are also raped and subjected to sexual enslavement.
The drastic decline of the economy has exacerbated Syria’s humanitarian crisis. In the course of almost six years, the conflict has devastated Syria’s economy, resulting in economic losses of more than $254 billion. Conflict has damaged or destroyed Syria’s economic infrastructure, impeded access to sources of income, disrupted markets, and triggered currency depreciation. Economic losses from the disruption to the education system are estimated around $11 billion, equivalent to about 18 per cent of Syria's 2010 gross domestic product (GDP), further damaging long-term economic prospects.
An assortment of unilateral sanctions - some of the most far-reaching ever imposed - has severely limited trade opportunities. Complex financial and legal requirements often preclude the delivery of humanitarian assistance and can restrict humanitarian actors from importing basic equipment and material essential to maintaining life-saving services. Unilateral sanctions and export controls prohibit the importation of a range of ‘dual-use’ items. Consequently, many projects delivered by the UN, international non-governmental organisations (INGO), and their implementing partners in areas such as water supply, sanitation, agricultural production, power supply and the reconstruction of hospitals/homes rely on access to controlled dual-use goods and are likely to require specific licenses. According to UNDP, such import restrictions alone have led to a decline in the efficiency of water operations of more than 40 per cent relative to pre-crisis levels. Food production has been drastically reduced, with the total area of land under cultivation having shrunk by 40 per cent. Compounded by difficulties in distributing food staples, a third of the population is now food insecure. Government revenues have plummeted largely due to the decrease in oil exports and the disruption of trade. As a result, the country’s GDP has contracted by 55 per cent, with a further contraction expected. A fragmented war economy based on shortterm opportunism and predatory behavior – profiteering, kidnapping, theft, illegal taxation, and diversion of assistance – has also contributed to the economy’s decline.
Outlook for 2017
In the absence of a political solution to the conflict, intense and widespread hostilities, particularly in Aleppo and ISIL-controlled areas, are likely to persist in 2017. A scale of population movement similar to that seen in 2016, worsening socio-economic conditions and inter-communal relations, as well as deepening vulnerabilities and protection concerns are anticipated. The likely protraction of these drivers of conflict will preclude improvements in social infrastructure, market accessibility and the availability of livelihood opportunities. In this climate, millions of people living in Syria will continue to depend on humanitarian assistance.
While local agreements have translated into some improvements in humanitarian access, access to besieged and militarily encircled areas through cross-line modalities remains contingent on political negotiations, further undermining the principle of unhindered humanitarian access to people in need. In the absence of a political solution, sieges, with disproportionate effects on the well-being of civilians, are likely to continue. The use of heavy weaponry against populated areas and a lack of access to vital supplies, including food, water, basic hygiene supplies and medicine, will endanger civilians’ well-being in besieged areas. With limited options and increasingly scarce vital resources, civilians will experience malnutrition and disease outbreaks, as well as the more visible and immediate threats to life presented by frequent attacks and the continued use of improvised and heavy weaponry in densely populated areas.
While people living in hard-to-reach and encircled areas may have intermittent access to humanitarian assistance, the absence of routine and predictable aid often leaves families struggling to meet basic needs. With fewer options available, families may be forced to resort to further desperate and unsafe coping strategies as a means of survival. In many areas, violence permeates all levels of society, leaving men, women and particularly children exposed to multiple, serious protection threats.
Conflict-induced mass displacement will also continue to drive humanitarian needs in Syria. People fleeing violence will struggle to escape internally or across Syria’s borders. While those who move internally will struggle to access livelihoods and services in overburdened host communities, those who select to cross borders are increasingly denied entry, leading them to resort to illegal and dangerous means. Competition over increasingly scarce services and livelihood opportunities, both internally and in border areas, has the potential to aggravate social and economic tensions within communities.
With millions of Syrians unable to return to their homes due to the conflict, humanitarian actors will need to ensure that host communities are provided with the necessary assistance and social services to accommodate these people, in line with the 'do no harm principle' and the promotion of social harmony.
The level and scale of suffering endured by people living in Syria is unconscionable. Despite facing a volatile and insecure operating environment, funding shortages, administrative hurdles, and other challenges impeding the timely delivery of aid, humanitarian actors continue to extend a lifeline to millions of people each month. However with humanitarian and protection needs growing in scale, severity and complexity, no amount of humanitarian assistance and protection services can substitute for a political solution to the conflict.
"*It is now a legitimate question to ask whether there is any level of disaster and death that can be visited upon the Syrian people that might prompt the parties to this conflict – and, by extension, the international community – to identify a red line that will not be crossed.*"
Stephen O’Brien, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, 29 September 2016
At the beginning of 2016, it was difficult to conceive that the situation for those in Syria could get any worse. Nonetheless, the combination of unrelenting hostilities, continued violations of IHL and IHRL, including obstructions to humanitarian access and the effects of economic collapse, have seen an already catastrophic humanitarian situation deteriorate yet further.
The conflict has displaced 6.3 million people in Syria, forced from their homes and communities seeking protection from violence, access to basic services, and re-newed livelihood opportunities.
Since the beginning of the crisis, over half of the country’s population has been forced from their homes. At least 4.8 million people have sought refuge in the region and beyond, and 6.3 million people are internally displaced. Rates of displacement continue unabated. On average, every day between January and August 2016 an additional 6,150 people were forced from their homes or areas of residence.
Newly displaced people are often required to flee at short notice, leaving behind many of their belongings. While the majority are still able to find refuge with host families, shelters are often extremely overcrowded and lacking basic amenities.
A recent rapid assessment in the south of Syria found that almost half of respondents were sharing with three or more families, while 20 per cent of the 169 people surveyed (48 women and 121 men) had no shelter at all. Due to a lack of access to cash, among other issues, new IDPs also face significant barriers in accessing food and other essential items, although these may be available on the market. Faced with limited options, people may therefore return to their homes in conflict-affected areas once immediate risks appear to have passed, only to have to flee again days later. This gives rise to a pattern of short-term, cyclical displacement in conflict-affected areas across the country.
The conflict has led to significant, protracted displacement and family separation. Many IDPs facing protracted displacement often have tremendous needs and face immense challenges in accessing livelihood opportunities in host communities, where residents are themselves grappling with economic hardship. These circumstances leave IDPs exposed to exploitation and dependency. As frontlines have shifted, many IDPs have moved multiple times in search of safety, while others have experienced secondary or tertiary displacement as their financial resources become depleted and are forced to move into cheaper, poorer quality and more crowded accommodation. Broadly speaking, with each displacement, overall vulnerability increases.
The estimated 1.1 million people living in camps, informal settlements, and collective centres are particularly vulnerable. Over the last six months, some long-established IDP sites have become less secure and two direct attacks were reported: on 5 May, two rockets struck a civilian IDP settlement in Idleb, killing 26 people and wounding 23 others, while on 14 April, ISIL overran the IDP settlement near the border with Turkey in Aleppo, razing it to the ground. There were no casualties, as the settlement had been evacuated earlier, but the tents were burned and destroyed. Conditions in the sites remain dire: 57 per cent of collective centres are without sufficient water, 50 per cent lack sufficient sanitation facilities, and 54 per cent are over-crowded.
974,080 people are trapped in besieged areas
Throughout Syria, parties to the conflict, particularly the Government of Syria (GoS), continue to use siege as a military tactic, inflicting indiscriminate and direct suffering on the civilian population. In appalling conditions, men, women, and children within the 16 besieged areas are particularly vulnerable to malnutrition and waterborne and communicable diseases. Health risks such as trauma injuries and infectious disease outbreaks are compounded by the lack of access to regular medical services, care and treatment. Throughout 2016, the removal of medical supplies from aid convoys and restrictions on medical evacuations continued, resulting in civilian deaths. The use of starvation as a method of warfare by depriving the civilian population of good essential for survival is prohibited by IHL, and may amount to a war crime.
Humanitarian and protection needs are growing to unprecedented levels in terms of scale, severity, and complexity
Since October 2015, the number of people unable to obtain the basic food required to meet their needs has risen from 6.3 million to nearly 7 million. Limitations in the water network supply have resulted in almost 50 per cent of the population meeting the majority of their water needs from alternative sources, including costly commercial water trucking and unsafe open wells. 12.8 million people across Syria are without adequate health assistance. Some 30,000 people suffer conflict-related trauma injuries each month. One in three children is now out of school, and a further 1.4 million are at risk of dropping out. One in four schools has been damaged, destroyed, occupied, or shut down. 5.8 million people require some form of non-food item assistance, with adequate housing no longer available in over a third of the country. With no end to the conflict in sight, these needs are set to continue to define the lives of people living in Syria during the coming year.
"*I got injured but I only think about my family and kids - what will happen to them? I don’t have the right to think about myself; I don’t have the right to worry about myself.*"
Woman in Aleppo Governorate.
Today, all segments of the Syrian population are vulnerable, albeit in different ways. In some areas, their freedom of movement is severely limited based on religious and social factors. Women and girls face risks of sexual violence, exploitation, abuse, harassment, and domestic violence. Men and boys face restrictions on their freedom of movement due to insecurity and lack or loss of documentation. When violence escalates, men are often not permitted to pass through checkpoints and often find themselves trapped under fire. Men and boys are the primary targets of campaigns of arrest, detention, disappearance, and recruitment to the conflict.
"*When my friends and I go out to play we are insulted by people who say that we have grown up and should stay in the tent.*"
Girl in Aleppo Governorate.
Meanwhile, the elderly and persons with disabilities and mental health disorders, particularly those with insufficient family and community support, are at increased risk of social exclusion, poverty, and violence due to limited mobility, discrimination, and a lack of availability of services designed to meet their specific needs. Palestine refugees also face extreme vulnerabilities. Of the 450,000 Palestine refugees remaining in Syria, 280,000 are displaced. Overall, 95 per cent are dependent on the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) for assistance to survive. There is a growing number of people in Syria who have lost or lack civil documents, face impediments to their mobility and obstacles in seeking safety and accessing basic services, livelihoods, and assistance. Internally displaced persons, particularly those living in IDP sites such as collective centres, face heightened protection risks.